The benchmark index of U.S. leading economic indicators surged 1.2% in October, following an anemic 0.1% increase and 0.4% increase in August and September. As the impact of the worst hurricane season in decades dissipated, the U.S. Leading Economic Index, calculated by The Conference Board, shot higher in October. Even at the peak of the last economic expansion, the index of leading indicators did not hit the recent levels, and that was a debt-fueled bubble.
Houston is exploding with growth and so is compensation and equity participation. Read our special report before making your next move.
Sticking With The Fundamentals
When financial advisors explain the reasons to invest in, or not invest in, particular stocks, they often refer to the "fundamentals" of the companies in question. Media pundits also may cite "fundamentals" in their stock prognostications. And corporate officers may brag about their companies' "fundamentals."
But what does it all mean? They're generally referring to fundamental analysis, a traditional school of thought in looking at companies' basic numbers as a way to evaluate profitability.
Unlike technical analysis of a company, which focuses on the recent trading and pricing history of the company's stock, fundamental analysis paints a broad picture of a company. This process identifies the fundamental value of the shares and leads to decisions to buy or sell the stock.
With technical analysis, you're trying to spot patterns that will help predict whether the fortunes of a company will rise or fall. In contrast, fundamental analysis involves profit margins, management decisions, growth potential, balance sheets, a company's role in a specific industry or sector, and political and other events, domestically and globally, that might affect its performance.
But fundamental analysis isn't limited to figuring out which stocks to buy and when to buy them. It is also about analyzing the timing of possible sales or purchases.
For example, when the stock market is booming, as it was at the start of 2017, investors are quick to jump on the bandwagon, while during times of stock market decline, the same investors often flee in a panic. That's what happened in 2008 and 2009, when the economy contracted and share prices fell by more than half. Of course, there are times when it makes sense to sell stocks, but it is best not to base such decisions on fear.
A better idea is to take a closer look at the fundamentals. In doing so, you might ask—and get answers to—these questions after a market decline has pushed down the price of a particular holding:
Is the business model still solid?
Have profit margins remained consistent?
Is the company financially sound?
Is the company likely to thrive over time?
If the answers are "yes," you may be well-served to retain your shares in the company for the long term. However, if the firm appears to be heading in the wrong direction, has shrinking profit margins, and sports a business model that is out of touch with changes in the industry, you probably should sell sooner rather than later.
Of course, you don't have to pour through financial reports and other documents to guide your decisions. If you invest in mutual funds, their professional managers are doing this work for you, analyzing company fundamentals to help them decide what to buy or sell to maximize their funds' performance. And we routinely help clients investigate stock fundamentals as they shape their portfolios. Please give us a call if you'd like to discuss your current and potential holdings.
This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Advisor Products and is not intended as legal or investment advice.